Apple’s stockpiled iPhones, the company might move its assembly of US phones to India and many of its devices are currently exempt from reciprocal tariffs on China. So does that mean iPhone prices won’t go up?

Don’t bet on it, say the experts. The price of an iPhone could inch up, and may have already, without you realizing it.

“[A price increase is] probably buried in the promotional deals or the installment plans,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president for IDC’s Worldwide Device Tracker suite, which includes mobile phones, tablets and wearables. “Yes, it might cost 50 bucks more at some stage, but we spread that over time, and it’s a monthly installment plan.” 

It’s been less than a month since President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, launching a roller-coaster ride of raising and pausing tariffs on imports from nearly 100 countries. That included triple-digit levies for China, where Apple currently produces most of its products.

Even before Trump announced the tariffs, Apple’s biggest suppliers in India had shipped nearly $2 billion worth of iPhones in March, according to customs records. 

Trump ended up exempting smartphones and some other electronics from his reciprocal tariffs, leaving in place a 20% tariff on goods shipped from China. Some politicians have questioned this exemption, and this week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook asking how Apple products were excluded after Trump said there would be no tariff exemptions.

On top of this, Apple reportedly may source its entire line of iPhones for the US market from India by the end of 2026. India was among those reprieved temporarily from its 26% reciprocal tariff but is still subject to a 10% tariff on all imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that he expects India to be the first to secure a tariff deal, according to the New York Post.

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Regardless of where tariffs end up, you should be prepared for potential price increases on electronics. We have alternative options to help you save on them, including the iPhone.

How much could iPhone prices go up with tariffs? We do the math

If the full cost of current tariffs were passed on to shoppers, we could see anywhere from a 26% hike on Apple products manufactured in India to a 145% increase for those made in China. But currently, tariffs on goods from India have a 10% tariff and iPhones manufactured in China are still subject to Trump’s 20% “fentanyl tariff” for the country’s supposed role in allowing fentanyl to enter the US. Here’s how that could potentially affect the price of the iPhone:

But there’s a lot more that goes into the price of an iPhone than simply where it’s assembled. Apple sources components for its products from a long list of countries, which could face higher tariffs after the pause. And a tariff on goods doesn’t necessarily mean prices will go up by the same amount. If companies want to stay competitive, they could absorb some of the costs to keep their prices lower. 

“It won’t be as high as 1-to-1 in terms of the tariff increases,” Reith said. “The math isn’t as clear-cut as that on the tariffs.”

When could we see prices go up?

It’s unclear exactly when prices could go up but if companies sell out of devices produced before the tariffs, they may have to increase prices on products in tariffed shipments. However, even if Apple can’t avoid tariffs entirely, it has ways to offset the impact through its services — including its music, news and data plans — according to supply chain expert Joe Hudicka.

“Apple will likely absorb some of the tariff costs up front to keep sticker prices stable, then pass the rest on to consumers gradually through service bundles, device longevity and ecosystem upgrades,” he said. “Consumers will still pay, just not all at once.”

It’s also unclear exactly how much of an impact the tariffs will have on prices for all smartphones. If rising prices cause demand to plummet, experts note that Apple and other producers could reduce their prices to stay competitive.  

Watch this: Buy or Wait Guide: How Tariffs Will Change Tech Prices and What to Do Next

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What’s going on with tariffs?

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports plus reciprocal tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries on April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day.” He quickly announced a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs but left the baseline levies in place.

Trump’s long touted tariffs as a way to even the trade deficit and raise revenue to offset tax cuts, although many economists say that tariffs could lead to higher prices and may end up hurting the US economy. Stock prices plummeted after Trump’s announcement as markets reacted poorly to the sweeping tariffs.

Trump has taken an especially hard stance on China, which was already subject to tariffs that Trump ordered during his first term in office. He started in February, imposing 20% in tariffs, then announced a 34% tariff on goods from China earlier this month. He added an additional 50% tariff before eventually landing on the 145% tariff against China. China has responded with its own tariffs after each of Trump’s announcements.

The US Customs and Border Protection listed some key consumer electronics exempted from the reciprocal tariffs this month, but Trump said that those products would still be subject to a 20% fentanyl tariff. White House officials said the reprieve from additional tariffs was temporary and that those products would instead be subject to a “semiconductor tariff.”

Tariffs, in theory, are designed to financially impact other countries because their goods are being taxed. Tariffs are paid by the US company importing the product, and this upcharge is usually — but not always — passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices.

Should you buy tech now to avoid tariffs later? 

If you already planned to buy a new iPhone, gaming console, MacBook or other tech, buying it now might save you money.

But if you don’t have the cash on hand and need to use a credit card or buy now, pay later plan just to avoid tariffs, experts say to make sure you have the money to cover the costs before you start accruing interest. With credit cards’ average interest rates currently more than 20%, the cost of financing a big purchase could quickly wipe out any savings you’d get by buying before prices go up because of tariffs.

“If you finance this expense on a credit card and can’t pay it off in full in one to two months, you’ll likely end up paying way more than a tariff would cost you,” said Alaina Fingal, an accountant, founder of The Organized Money and a CNET Money Expert Review Board member. “I would recommend that you pause on any big purchases until the economy is more stable.” 

One way to save on Apple products, even if prices go up, is to buy last year’s model instead of the newest release or a used one. And trading or selling a used one can help offset the cost even more.

“Apple has leaned into that with its Certified Refurbished program, much like the auto industry’s used car model,” Hudicka said. “This program helps extend the lifespan of devices, keeping customers in the Apple ecosystem longer while distributing the cost impact over time.”